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While visualization can support understanding complex phenomena, their effectiveness might vary with the recipient’s familiarity with both the phenomenon and the visualization. The current study contrasted interpretations of simulated hurricane paths using student populations from a high frequency hurricane area versus no local hurricane risk. Non-expert understanding of trajectory predictions was supported via two visualizations: common cones of uncertainty and novel dynamic ensembles. General patterns of performance were similar across the two groups. Participants from the high hurricane risk area did show narrower decision thresholds, in both common and novel visualization formats. More variability was consistently considered possible when viewing the dynamic ensemble displays. Despite greater likelihood of experiences with variability of trajectories outside of forecast paths, greater familiarity tended towards narrower interpretations of the need for evacuations within the variability possible. The results suggest an advantage of dynamic ensembles in grasping uncertainty even in populations familiar with hurricanes. 

Visualizations attempt to convey the uncertain track of an approaching hurricane. The current experiment contrasted decision characteristics that resulted from observing hurricane paths presented using cones of uncertainty versus a new form of dynamic ensemble. Participants made judgments about whether to evacuate a town at different eccentricities to the central predicted path of a storm. Results showed that dynamic ensembles have different properties to cone displays. Presentations of dynamic ensembles encouraged greater consideration of evacuation at locations further from the most probable path, but that were still at risk. However, dynamic ensembles resulted in lower evacuation rates at the center of the distribution, consistent with a probabilistic sense of the risk but nonetheless a potentially undesirable strategy. In addition, perceptions of the evacuation need with dynamic ensemble presentations were more strongly influenced by the amount of variability than with cones. The implications for use of dynamic ensembles are discussed.